The code is not accidental. In the UN General Assembly, China did not vote in a resolution condemning Russian military action in Ukraine, instead of a referendum on Russia or Belarus.
This does not explicitly indicate support for the “Western” strategy. After all, if you look at which countries did not vote, you can see that many big and important countries, including India, Pakistan and many African countries, have made it clear that they are not on the side of the Western powers.
However, even a vote in favor of condemning Russia in the UN General Assembly is a symbolic move because only the Security Council can take a restrictive decision, which is Russia’s veto. The most realistic indicator of the alliance with the West is whether countries choose to impose sanctions on Russia – and there are many impressive countries, including many that have good relations with the West, which have made it clear that they will not follow suit. The path of obstacles.
However, even with these data, it is interesting to see how China seeks to build alliances with Russia and remains a pole that can act as a factor in international stability.
Strategic depth of Russian-Chinese integration
The integration between Russia and China is not self-evident. After all, historically both countries have had many periods of mutual suspicion. After all, since Nixon’s visit to Beijing, the U.S. attempt to reconcile with China and dialogue with Mao have aimed to deepen the Synoviet divide, which has been the biggest rift since the early 1960s. Socialist camp “.
However, it is clear that the leadership of the Communist Party of China over the years has assumed that conflict with the West will occur in the Middle Ages, and that the West is not just trying to rebuild itself as a common defense policy. About Russia, but by itself. In the second half of 2010, the United States and the European Union measured this by taking a hostile stance towards the “one belt – one road” strategy in an attempt to restrict Chinese investment.
In addition, China has seen the United States handling the AUKUS agreement between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom more aggressively in an attempt to increase pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific region.
At this depth, integration with Russia in defense policy has a very comprehensive strategic character. The meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping in early February, particularly the joint statement, reflected a broader consensus on the worldview in which state sovereignty is considered inviolable, interventions within other states are avoided and arms exports of a particular democratic model are not. Testing and human rights.
This integration is not limited to the general perception of international relations or mutual animosity towards Western “interventions”, but extends to the possibility of creating a comprehensive network of economic transactions outside the “West”, although the Chinese economy is very diverse. Despite US efforts to disconnect China from access to sophisticated semiconductors while remaining an integral part of key supply chains with Western countries.
Russian acceleration of the conflict and China’s approach
Judging by the rhetoric of the Chinese leadership, it is clear that despite investing in the continued improvement of Chinese defense capabilities, he still does not support the transition to a conflict zone, despite a clear stance against any question. Continuing to make it clear that we will not tolerate the current regime change regarding the South China Sea and Taiwan.
In addition, China has always argued that it refuses to interfere or change borders or annexes or the autonomy of territories.
In this sense, one might assume that there must have been a Chinese proposition regarding Russia’s choice to accelerate the conflict with the West through military action in Ukraine.
However, things are heading towards a full-blown conflict anyway, so the Russian side seems to have “passed” its own assessment that further retreat in Ukraine should be avoided.
The Chinese reaction seems to be trying to combine two key elements. On the one hand, the maintenance and deepening of this strategic agreement, including support for Russia and the improvement of bilateral economic relations in exchange for Western sanctions. On the other hand, maintaining China’s ability to become a unique pole, with good relations with all parties.
Careful rituals for Ukraine
The Chinese media generally condemned the position of the United States and the West and warned that the new “Berlin Wall” was not needed in Europe.
However, in his talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, Chinese diplomacy chose a lower tone.
“China is deeply saddened by the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and is deeply concerned about the blows inflicted on civilians,” he said. Always respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations. “In the current crisis, China is urging Ukraine and Russia to find a negotiated solution.” At the same time, he stressed, “China has always believed that the security of one country cannot be compromised by the security of other countries, and that regional security cannot be achieved by expanding military bases.”
All of this points to an attempt by China to emerge as a pole that can play a peaceful role in the international arena without severing ties with Russia.
We would like to remind you that Ukraine is part of the Chinese “One Belt – One Road” initiative and China has made significant investments in the country, considering it one of the connecting points with other parts of Europe.
The horizon of the geopolitical divide
All this, at the same time, does not deny the fact that China reads the attitude of the West towards Russia and the kind of pressure or aggression it can accept in some cases directly related.
That is, it sees Western moves against Russia as a game book that could be used against it in future conflict, including the declaration of a bizarre “world economic war.”
It also explains why China in general wants the Western endeavor to succeed and end up at a lower overall cost. At the same time, it remains to be seen how it will adapt to the escalation of the conflict, and even indirectly, to the extent of the global divide that affects it, at least as a historical horizon.
However, recent moves by the Chinese leadership to increase the armor and be prepared clearly indicate that everything from technology and productive self-sufficiency to controlling a section of the rich and placing greater emphasis on social cohesion is on the rise. More economic deviation in the future and more conflict with the West.