In the coming decades, the effects of climate change will intensify across the United States. This shift won’t be felt uniformly, with some regions experiencing more dramatic warming than others. A USA TODAY analysis of climate data reveals just how much hotter your county might get by 2040.
Using temperature projections from the Climate Impact Lab, the analysis paints a vivid picture of what lies ahead for Americans. Some counties could see a significant rise in extreme heat days, while cooler regions may experience a dramatic increase in average temperatures.
A Warming Nation: The Broad Overview
The analysis forecasts widespread warming across the nation, based on projections from 2020 to 2040. The data, which uses models under a “middle of the road” scenario (referred to as SSP2-4.5), takes into account factors such as population growth, economic development, and the assumption that global climate policies will help curb emissions by 2100. Under this scenario, the U.S. will see varying levels of warming, with some counties expected to experience minimal increases in average temperatures, while others face much larger jumps.
Over the next two decades, nearly 1,100 U.S. counties are projected to experience significant warming, with an increase of 2.6 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit in annual temperatures. Meanwhile, more than 1,600 counties could face moderate warming of 2.1 to 2.6 degrees, and 517 counties are expected to experience minimal warming between 1.0 and 2.1 degrees. These projections show the uneven impact of climate change, which will bring unique challenges to different parts of the country.
Cooler Regions Heating Up
While warmer parts of the U.S. will undoubtedly face more days of extreme heat, cooler regions will see some of the most noticeable temperature increases. Northern Alaska, for instance, could experience the most dramatic rise in temperatures.
By 2040, annual temperatures in some parts of the state could rise by up to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit. This rapid warming in Alaska is largely due to polar amplification, a phenomenon that causes regions near the Arctic to warm two to three times faster than other parts of the world. Alaska’s shift will have a significant impact on local ecosystems, affecting the availability of fish and wildlife that many rural communities rely on.
The Great Plains and Midwest could also face significant warming, with temperatures rising by more than 3 degrees in some areas. This could have major implications for agriculture, which is the lifeblood of many communities in these regions. The increase in temperature could extend the frost-free season, potentially benefiting some crops. However, it could also increase the risk of heat-related crop failures, putting farmers at risk. Already, government payouts for weather-related crop losses have surged, with heat now responsible for a significant portion of those losses.
Coastal Regions: Cooler but Still Vulnerable
On the coasts, counties may experience relatively less warming due to the cooling effects of nearby oceans. However, this doesn’t mean these regions will be spared from the dangers of climate change. Rising sea levels and more intense tropical storms could pose severe risks to coastal communities, even as their temperatures increase at a slower rate than inland regions.
As climate researcher Brian Brettschneider points out, the slower rise in temperatures may give coastal areas a false sense of security, masking the real dangers posed by flooding, storm surges, and extreme rainfall.
Dangerous Heat in Already Warm Regions
For regions that are already hot, climate change is set to bring even more dangerous conditions. Many counties across the southern U.S., especially in Florida and the Southeast, are projected to experience over three additional weeks of days above 90 degrees Fahrenheit. In total, more than 1,000 counties are expected to face over 21 additional days of extreme heat each year. While these days may be spread out across the calendar, the cumulative impact could be devastating.
Extreme heat poses serious risks to human health, especially in areas where communities are not equipped to handle the rising temperatures. Heat is already the leading cause of climate-related deaths in the U.S., and with the number of hot days increasing, heat-related illnesses and fatalities are likely to rise. Children, older adults, and individuals with preexisting health conditions are especially vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat, which can cause the body’s internal temperature to rise dangerously.
In urban areas, where green spaces are limited and air conditioning may be scarce, the heat could prove deadly. The situation is particularly dire in cities unaccustomed to extremely hot weather. Schools, for example, may not have air conditioning, making it difficult for students to focus and creating unsafe learning environments.
Mitigation and Adaptation: The Path Forward
The challenge posed by rising temperatures is clear, but the solutions are not. Adapting to a warmer future will require investment in infrastructure, such as increasing the number of cooling centers in cities and expanding green spaces to mitigate the urban heat island effect. However, not all communities have the resources to implement these changes, leaving vulnerable populations at even greater risk.
Reducing the worst impacts of climate change will require action on a global scale. Limiting greenhouse gas emissions now could help mitigate the warming projected for 2040 and beyond. As Kelly McCusker, a climate scientist at the Climate Impact Lab, explains, “We have the ability now to reduce the worst impacts simply by reducing emissions.” By taking action today, we can help save lives in the future and prevent the worst of climate change from becoming a reality.
Conclusion
The U.S. is on track to experience significant temperature increases in the coming decades, with some regions facing more extreme changes than others. Cooler areas are heating up rapidly, while hotter regions will see a rise in dangerous heat days. Coastal counties may not face as much warming but remain at risk of other climate-related dangers such as flooding and severe storms.
Adapting to these changes will be crucial, but the most effective solution remains reducing emissions and preventing further damage to our climate. As the country warms, the need for action has never been more urgent.
