In a well-made trap Vladimir Putin As for the Ukrainians, the West is stunned, and foreign policy argues in its analysis that the Kremlin’s strong man will succeed even if he does not order an invasion.
Regardless of his final results, the Russian president has been able to keep Western diplomats busy in recent months. It all started when he moved Strong forces At various points on the border with Ukraine, he argued that Russia has the right to do so, which is true. But these moves cannot be left unexplained in light of the Russian invasion of Crimea and the Donbass over the past decade and its involvement in the war since 2014.
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Therefore, it is not surprising that the United States and its European allies reacted strongly to Putin’s recent moves, and the invasion of Ukraine warned Moscow. Obstacles, But threats to US President Joe Biden’s Russian envoy to avoid such action. However, columnist Carolyn de Kruyter wonders if this diplomatic show was intended to provoke Putin by his actions, and whether the West eventually played tricks on him.
The trend in the Russian economy is a headache for Putin
According to FP analysis, Putin has recently intensified problems in the Russian economy, which largely depends on the export of goods, without stagnation and any visible effort to change it, compared to developing countries.
Russia’s geographical size is large, but often empty, and its GDP is comparable to that of medium – sized economies such as Spain. At the same time, its population and its capacity are declining, with Putin and those around him abandoning policies that meet the expectations of the people and focusing on maintaining rule in the medium term.
In light of this, the Putin regime is looking for other ways to support its legitimacy, e.g. As the successor to the Soviet Union, Russia was manipulating public opinion through propaganda against the “hostile” West and developing its belief that their country was a “superpower”. But, as the article points out, Putin can be destroyed by Russia, but not built, which supports dictators (e.g. Assad, Lukashenko, etc.) and helps suppress uprisings, some governments, but not their citizens.
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Dealing with the United States helps Russia to emerge as a superpower
The author notes that Russia appears to be a superpower because of the treatment it receives from the United States, which takes Putin’s rated provocation seriously and acts to give it credibility. On Russian television, Putin-Biden contacts are presented as meetings of two adults, discussing how to deal with children (i.e. other parts of the world.) Since these are known, why do Western nations continue to fall into Putin’s trap?
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Putin has been rubbing his hands with satisfaction lately. First, he took the initiative of the moves and appeared in the first pages. He reminded the world and the Russians what he could do if he decided to do so: order an invasion of Ukraine, and the fear of the West confirms a regime that relies on power both domestically and internationally.
Disagreement in the West
Following that, Putin shocked Europe and the United States by stationing troops near the border with Ukraine, provoking discussions about their possible reaction if he did not order an invasion. Sanctions may be imposed as in the past, but for the Kremlin the main outcome of these discussions is that the West is divided and reveals its weaknesses rather than citing its defenses. Disagreement is clear among EU members, who are allies in NATO, but even within governments like Germany.
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But Putin won because he showed Ukraine and other former Soviet republics flirting with the West that their Western allies were weak and insecure in dealing with existential threats. In the event of an invasion, they will face urgent sanctions, perhaps imposing them as they did in the previous Russian invasion of Ukraine, but nothing more. This is nothing new, but it is a reminder that strengthens Moscow’s story: “Ukraine, you are alone”, where you were expelled from Russia’s sphere of influence, while Putin rushed to support his “comrade” in Kazakhstan. , As “true” friends do;
Where is the EU?
Developments show that the United States plays a key role in Europe’s defense of Russia’s interests because it wants to see Putin as the sole intermediary with Washington in the Cold War, while continuing to undermine Putin. , Useless.
However, according to the article, Washington’s positive outcome emphasizes that despite its leadership in diplomatic efforts with Moscow, all its moves are closely coordinated with the United States and the European Union and Europe’s European allies. That.
Putin’s account of European security
Recently, Putin was able to put on the table the story of European security, which, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is moving aggressively against Western Russia, forcing itself to defend itself. So the proposals put forward by Moscow for a new security framework in Europe will slow the access of more countries to NATO. Putin knows this is unacceptable, but he emphasizes the story when he reinforces the Kremlin’s campaign as a pillar of his power. Keeping the Ukrainians in the news is in Putin’s favor.
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The developments of the next period – whether invasive or not – will be of significant benefit to Putin, especially in the light of the US and European response to his threat. Could Europe have avoided all this? Maybe not, but it might be hard for him.
What can the West do?
The West, first of all, must reduce its tone. It was known that discussions on sanctions in Russia would be difficult in Europe and the United States and that this would weaken their defenses. Even the word “sanctions” sounds weak when confronted with the intensity of an invasion of another country. The West should not talk openly about sanctions, but instead cover up its documents by cleverly sending messages related to Putin to Moscow through diplomatic channels instead of expressing dissent.
According to the article, the West still needs to talk about the rules governing the international system, namely regional unity and the right of states to make their own choices.
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Finally, Western nations need to think more about what benefits Putin expects and boomeranging his expectations against him. For example, if the Russian president wants to appear on stage with his US representative, let the West reward him only if he acts “correctly”. That is the language that Putin understands. Again, these moves need to be made behind the scenes so that Putin can step back drastically without appearing to have backed down.
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